People’s United Financial Actions (NASDAQ: PBCT) gained 1.9% last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 3.2%). Additionally, the stock outperformed the broader markets over the month (down 3.8% vs. 7.2%). The current stock market volatility is attributable to the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, as well as record inflation figures in the United States.
The company is a US bank holding entity that owns People’s United Bank. The bank offers commercial banking, retail banking and wealth management services. Despite falling revenue, it managed to beat consensus estimates in the fourth quarter. Additionally, he announced last week that the required regulatory approval had been received from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to complete the acquisition of People’s United by M&T Bank Corporation. The factors listed above were the main drivers of positive investor sentiment towards the stock.
Now, should PBCT stock rise further, or can we expect a correction? We believe there is a 65% chance of People’s United Financial stock rising over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends. over the past ten years. See our analysis on People’s United Financial stock upside chance.
Twenty-one days: PBCT -3.8%, vs. S&P500 -7.2%; Market outperformed
(20% probability event; 65% upside probability over the next 21 days)
- People’s United Financial Actions lost 3.8% over the past twenty-one trading days (one month), versus a broader market (S&P500) down 7.2%
- A change of -3.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 20% probability event, which has occurred 513 out of 2515 times in the last ten years
- Of these 513 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 335 occasions.
- This points to a 65% chance the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten days: PBCT -5.7%, vs. S&P500 -3.1%; Underperforming market
(7% probability event; 55% upside probability in the next 10 days)
- People’s United Financial Actions decreased by 5.7% over the past ten trading days (two weeks), versus a broader market (S&P500) down 3.1%
- A change of -5.7% or more over ten trading days is a 7% probability event, which has occurred 164 out of 2516 times in the last ten years
- Of these 164 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next ten trading days on 90 occasions.
- This points to a 55% chance that the stock will rise over the next ten trading days
Five-day: PBCT 1.9%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Market outperformed
(23% probability event; 48% upside probability over the next five days)
- People’s United Financial Actions gained 1.9% over a five-day trading period ending 08/03/2022, vs broad market (S&P500) down 3.2%
- A change of 1.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 23% probability event, which has occurred 586 out of 2515 times in the last ten years
- Of these 586 instances, the stock has seen positive movement over the next five trading days on 281 occasions.
- This points to a 48% chance the stock will rise over the next five trading days
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| Return | March 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 YTD [1] |
2017-22 Total [2] |
| Back PBCT | -6% | 11% | 2% |
| S&P 500 return | -5% | -12% | 86% |
| Performance of the Trefis MS portfolio | -5% | -15% | 235% |
[1] Monthly and year-to-date cumulative as of 9/3/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
